Leaderboarder
Fictional demo league

Technology · Hosted by Mara Okafor

The Ship Log

A demo league hosted by a fictional product newsletter. Predict launches, outages and adoption milestones at made-up companies.

Round 3

0/5

All 5 calls are needed to qualify for the round leaderboard. Host and crowd calls stay hidden until close.

Closes Sat, Jan 3, 7:11 AM

Will Nimbus Labs release Nimbus 2.0 to all users before the round resolves?

Nimbus Labs has run a closed beta for six weeks and published a release checklist that is 80% complete. Resolves by: Yes if the public changelog lists 2.0 as generally available before resolution. Staged rollouts count only at 100%. Source: Nimbus public changelog (fictional).

Your chance of Yes
—

Pick a number. Nothing is saved until you choose.

Closes Sat, Jan 3, 7:11 AM

Will Parcelwise report more than 10,000 paying teams in its next update?

Their last update reported 8,400 paying teams, up from 7,100. Resolves by: Yes if the stated figure exceeds 10,000. Rounded statements like '10k+' count as Yes. Source: Parcelwise blog (fictional).

Your chance of Yes
—

Pick a number. Nothing is saved until you choose.

Closes Sat, Jan 3, 7:11 AM

Will Orbitly's status page show a major outage this week?

Orbitly had two major incidents last quarter. Resolves by: Yes if any incident is labeled 'Major' on the status page during the window. Source: Orbitly status page (fictional).

Your chance of Yes
—

Pick a number. Nothing is saved until you choose.

Closes Sat, Jan 3, 7:11 AM

Will Ferrous ship an open-source SDK before the round resolves?

Ferrous teased an SDK on its roadmap page. Resolves by: Yes if a public repository with an OSI license is announced. Source: Ferrous roadmap (fictional).

Your chance of Yes
—

Pick a number. Nothing is saved until you choose.

Closes Sat, Jan 3, 7:11 AM

Will Kettle AI's mobile app reach the top 50 in its category?

Kettle launched on mobile two weeks ago at rank 140. Resolves by: Yes if any daily ranking during the window is 50 or better. Source: Fictional app ranking tracker.

Your chance of Yes
—

Pick a number. Nothing is saved until you choose.

Round 2

Locked · awaiting results
Will Lumen Docs announce a pricing change?Host 70% · Crowd 58% (n=41)
Will Tidewater raise a Series B this round?Host 35% · Crowd 44% (n=41)

Round 1

Settled
Will Nimbus Labs open its 2.0 beta?Host 80% · Crowd 71% (n=38)yes96.0
Will Orbitly cut its free tier?Host 60% · Crowd 40% (n=38)no64.0
Will Ferrous hire a new CTO?Host 30% · Crowd 25% (n=38)voidExcluded
Will Parcelwise launch in Europe?Host 55% · Crowd 62% (n=38)yes79.8
Will Kettle AI ship a mobile app?Host 40% · Crowd 50% (n=38)yes64.0